For 75 years, we have combined technical expertise with business acumen to create elegant solutions for our clients. The main risk now seems to be whether the effects on inflation are not going to be seriously stagflationary in the short run as the purchasing power of consumers gets squeezed. Our February review of the European markets featuring Solvency II rates, inflation, and volatility and hedging costs. Binance steps away from FTX contagion is on the horizon, Today we celebrate US inflation and tomorrow we think, Technical Update - Crypto bubble imploding. With the core rate still at 1.1%, after having been as low as 0.3% until December, core inflation is still trending higher. Inflation has jumped to 5.8% on energy and goods inflation increases. Our Eurozone market We assume that there is still sufficient slack in the economy (the output gap is expected to close only after next year), with Eurozone GDP still below its pre-pandemic level. We expect inflation to temporarily exceed 2% later in the year, but the only worry for the European Central Bank at the moment is News Release. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The headline rate for March (first estimate released on 1 April) will be above 6 %, without any doubt. Published by D. Clark , Oct 19, 2022 As of September 2022, the inflation rate in the European Union was 10.9 percent, with prices rising fastest in Estonia, which had an (p) Preliminary, Benefits, Consumer price indexes, Consumer spending, Employment, Industry price indexes, Pay, Unemployment. The figure for the Netherlands came in at 17.1%, up from below 14% in August. Compared to inflation for all items in 1961 (1.07%), inflation in Chicago was lower. Figure 6: ECB policy rate expectations reach contractionary territory. Read more. Headline inflation was stable as energy inflation has been running less negative due to rising oil prices and favourable base effects. The energy inflation rate improved from -4.2% to -1.7% in February and we can expect it to turn positive in the coming months. As the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty. Here are the results of the most common searches: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. This rate of change indicates significant inflation. Increasing from 2.3 to 2.7%, it is once more seriously above target. Sources: Refinitiv, Allianz Research. They will see these inflationary drivers as largely fleeting. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. Eurozone inflation reaches new record high in February. Figure 1: Evolution of headline and core inflation (y/y, %), In this context, stagflation risks put ECB in a dilemma. Consumer Price Index: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI, Footnotes Some cookies are necessary, while others make the website more personal and relevant to you. Learn more about how we use cookies in our cookie statement. Tel: 44 20 78471557, London Navigate todays most pressing health industry challenges with a leading global expert by your side. Eurozone inflation is now uncomfortably high. This is not transitory anymore. Stay up to date with all of INGs latest economic and financial analysis. County Employment and Wages in Illinois Fourth Quarter Download PDF 0.3MB. In the medium term, the combination between the green transition, the structural lack of investment in energy infrastructures and the troubled situation in Ukraine will constitute a new inflation shock that the ECB will need to address. US Dollar positions could provide some upside. Further spikes are likely in the near term due Aside from pandemic-related base and one-off effects, the surge is largely due to the combination of a strong re-opening momentum and snarled-up supply chains as the fragile global production and distribution system failed to keep up with post-pandemic demand, especially for goods. ** Extended periods of 0% inflation usually indicate incomplete underlying data. This is mainly due to soaring goods prices as high input prices due to supply chain problems get priced through to the consumer. Quick monetary tightening on the back of that would result in extra negative effects on an economy already under pressure. (4) All Urban Consumers, base: 1982-84=100, not seasonally adjusted. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. (1) Number of persons, in thousands, not seasonally adjusted. In the year 1961: Pricing changed by 0.49%, which is significantly below the average yearly change in Chicago during the 1961-2022 time period. We forecast a 10%, ReportMarket rates should remain under upward pressure going into 2023. By using our website you agree to our use of cookies in accordance with our. (3) Number of jobs, in thousands, not seasonally adjusted. Higher inflation and lower growth impose hard policy trade-offs in a world where classic aggregate demand support has little impact amid strong cost-push pressures causing negative supply shocks. For the European Central Bank (ECB), the war does mean a rethink of monetary policy. If commodity prices, wages or interest rates rise more than expected, some sectors are particularly at risk of a liquidity and profitability squeeze. We expect inflation to temporarily exceed 2% later in the year, but the only worry for the European Central Bankat the moment is higher bond yields, not higher prices. See About the data. How high could inflation go in the Eurozone? The ECB is facing a risk trilemma as its hawkish monetary policy pivot pushes the specter of fragmentation risk back into the limelight. Aug 2022. ECB dilemma: In the short term, we believe the ECB will hold off on policy move until Ukraine clarity. This can manifest as a sharp increase in inflation later on. According to Eurostat, these prices rose by 44.7 percent last month, compared to 32 percent in February. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. March 2, 2022. See inflation summary for latest details. Next weeks Governing Council meeting will mostly focus on the impact of the conflict on inflation and financial stability. I want to use all functionalities on this website. The site is secure. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia all registered inflation rates above 22%. But once the geopolitical situation will be stabilized, they will certainly be very vocal in favor of a tightened monetary policy to fight inflation. Please read our disclaimers: Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification) Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer) Full disclaimer(https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer), Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters) Philip Heymans Alle 15 2900 Hellerup Denmark, Trade responsibly All trading carries risk. As the war in Ukraine drags on and eradicating the Covid-19 virus becomes an ever more elusive goal, the implications of the rising cost of living are far-reaching and raise hard questions about the adequacy of commonly used inflation models and in turn policy choices derived from these. Real property prices are set to decline by -15% in the next 12 months, pushing the US economy into a recession. Below are calculations of equivalent buying power in Chicago, over time, for $20 beginning in 1961. Over the medium term, we expect core inflation to be back in the driving seat. Slovakias 13.6% reading also Our Eurozone market monitor provides a monthly update on: London While most countries saw a rise in their annual inflation rate during 2021 and 2022, some of the highest rates of increase have been in Europe, Brazil, Turkey, the United States, and Israel. You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account. Tel: 44 020 78471658. Inflation rate, United States and eurozone, January 2016 through September 2022. Technical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Economy at a Glance: Top Picks, One Screen, Multi-Screen, and Maps, Industry Finder from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Consumer Price Index Overview Table Midwest, Consumer Expenditures in the Chicago Metropolitan Area 2020-21, Average energy prices for the United States, regions, census divisions, and selected metropolitan areas, County Employment and Wages in Illinois Fourth Quarter 2021, County Employment and Wages in Wisconsin Third Quarter 2021, Consumer Expenditures for the U.S., regions, and selected metropolitan areas, Consumer Price Index Historical Table for Chicago (PDF), County Employment and Wages in Indiana First Quarter 2022, Occupational Employment and Wages in Chicago-Naperville-Elgin May 2021, Occupational Employment and Wages in Lake County-Kenosha County May 2017, Midwest Economy - Safety and Health Statistics, Changing Compensation Costs in the Chicago Metropolitan Area September 2022, Occupational Employment and Wages in Gary May 2017, Occupational Employment and Wages in Elgin May 2017. We may share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. However, clearer signs of second-round effects in wage growth and inflation expectations could require an earlier tightening. With the ECB hiking interest rates for the first time in over 11 years, could tightening financial conditions spark a credit crunch? The main market risk might not come from the Fed falling behind the curve, but from investors being positioned too far ahead of the curve. The positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis. Euro area annual inflation up to 5.8% Euro area estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Employment, Pay. The latest figures for the UK and US are 10.1% and 8.2% respectively. Tel: 44 20 78471559, London February 2, 2022 Inflation in the eurozone climbed to a new record high in January, an unwelcome surprise for the economists who had anticipated price gains to begin moderating. Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research. Cookies are small, simple text files stored in your computer, tablet or mobile phone when you visit a website or use an app. Goods inflation is now at 3% and will remain elevated at least for the first half of the year before abating disruptions could dampen goods inflation somewhat again. However, past inflation dynamics suggest that the second-round effects of the initial price shocks (especially food and energy) will gradually abate over the course of the year. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.9 % in June 2021, down from 2.0 % in May 2021. In particular, a sharper slowdown in growth or the potential for fragmentation due to sovereign stresses could lead to a slower policy normalization. Cryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions. We expect economic growth to evolve below consensus this year and especially next year, which should also put a dampener on wage pressures and support a more dovish stance (with a first rate hike only expected in September). Read more. Manage complex risks using data-driven insights, advanced approaches, and deep industry experience. Data-driven insight. Expect a heated debate within the ECB about the opportunity to raise interest rates earlier than anticipated. information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely. The main driver of inflation remains high energy costs. Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. I understand that some functions will not be available. Years with the largest changes in pricing: 1919. Inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro accelerates to 5.8% in February 2022, driven by a 32% jump in energy costs. Inflation rates; Country/Region 2020 2021 Aug 2022 World: 1.9%: 3.4%: 8% Europe/Central Asia: 1.2%: In March, Spain to 7.5 % in February from 6.2 % in January. In other words, $20 in Chicago in the year 1961 Although order, ArticleSocial media companies have suffered heavily in the recent stock rout. CPI increased by 0.8% in I want to use all functionalities on this website. Retirement benefits administration platform, Health & welfare benefits administration platform. For anyone in doubt: the ECB is clearly not concerned about being behind the curve at the moment. Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. Harmonized inflation surged to 5.8% in February, from Januarys 5.1% reading and marking Note: */ includes the energy component with oil prices only (no natural gas); the variable selection for the services and goods component models does not vary depending on the estimation horizon (Q1 2020 and Q4 2021). (5) Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, base: 1982-84=100, not seasonally adjusted. Structural changes due to an inefficient reallocation of resources during the post-pandemic recovery could also lead to different inflation dynamics. The US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum. We estimate that the Ukraine conflict will add one percentage point to the eurozone inflation this year. Inflation was stable at 0.9% in February. Inflation in the euro zone surprised markets Wednesday, notching a new record high and piling yet more pressure on the European Central Bank to act. Raw Consumer Price Index data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for Chicago, Illinois: Read more about inflation and investment. Note: 1/ based on Allianz Research oil & gas forecasts (quarterly smoothed; Figure 5 below); 2/ Inflation swaps at one-year and two-year maturities. If you are using an older system or browser, the website may look strange. Here is how you know. (2) In percent, not seasonally adjusted. 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Mortgage platform for investments & reinsurance. Cookies are small, simple text files stored in your computer, tablet or mobile phone when you visit a website or use an app. Figure 3: Evolution of headline and core inflation by component (y/y %, quarterly average). The disappointing Q1 GDP performance across the Eurozone underlines the economic costs of the war in Ukraine as well as the heightened risk of a stagflation scenario. The inflation rate in the euro area stood at 9.9% in the year to September. While the Eurozone has been exposed to cost shocks before, the magnitude and the underlying causes for the current price shocks are unusual, which could lead to a case of inflation remaining higher for longer. Note: Pre-Covid and Covid-19 cover the time periods Q1 2001-Q4 2019 and Q1 2020-Q4 2021, respectively. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. And where diversity of thought and experience makes us who we are. Sources: Refinitiv, Allianz Research. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Not much more than that though, as temporary factors are pushing up the rate right nowand the economy continues to contract as the second round of lockdowns has been extended well into 1Q. An official website of the United States government Inflation keeps surprising on the upside, and pipeline price pressures are still building, suggesting that the peak remains ahead. More recently, Chinas zero-Covid policy and the related lockdowns of important industrial centers have put additional strain on supply chains, which threatens to keep shipping costs and producer prices higher for longer. As the situation regarding Russia and Ukraine changes so rapidly at the moment and no one can predict what the actual economic impact will be, expect the ECB to refrain from big commitments around its policy for the coming year. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. Today, we are helping organizations take on some of the world's most critical and complex issues, including retirement funding and healthcare financing, risk management and regulatory compliance, data analytics and business transformation. The ECB will sound the starting gun for its first rate-hiking cycle since the Global Financial Crisis. To ensure comparability as well as to mitigate potentially distorting estimation results from the pandemic, we differentiate between two main sample periods: one prior to the pandemic and one incorporating effects from the pandemic. Markets have fully embraced the hawkish narrative, pricing the terminal policy rate in contractionary territory above most neutral rate estimates (Figure 7). According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices in Chicago, Illinois are 793.98% higher in 2022 versus 1961 (a $158.80 difference in value). Occupational Employment and Wages in Chicago-Naperville-Elgin May 2021. Before sharing sensitive information, Ask the tough questions. To improve your experience on our site, please update your browser or system. That means the overall cost of Thanksgiving dinner Stay up to date with all of INGs latest economic and financial analysis. The Eurozone is facing the highest price pressures since the 1970s. Since 1947, Milliman has delivered intelligent solutions to improve health and financial security. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy had the highest annual rate in December (25.9%, compared with 27.5% in November), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (3.2%, compared with 2.2% in November), non-energy industrial goods (2.9%, compared with 2.4% in November) and services (2.4%, compared with 2.7% in November). Core inflation dropped from 1.4% to 1.1% in February, which was driven by slowing goods inflation and to a lesser degree by slowing services prices. This is, in part, because of cancelled winter sales in France, which pushedthe January reading higher. How should the ECB react? Our website is optimised to be browsed by a system running iOS 9.X and on desktop IE 10 or newer. Copyright 2022 Milliman, Inc. All Rights Reserved, Neil Dissanayake, Peter Lin, Nima Shahroozi, Risk Retention Analysis & Feasibility Studies, Milliman Compensation Salary & Benefits Survey, M-PIRe Valuation & Securitization Software, Spreads, inflation, volatility and hedging costs. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region. Each of the amounts below is equivalent in terms of what it could buy at the time: * Not final. For instance, global supply chains may have been permanently damaged, or the labor market may turn out much tighter than the unemployment rate would suggest. In contrast to the US, where markets already expect a reversal of monetary policy and are pricing in rate cuts as early as H2 2023, short-term rates in the Eurozone still exhibit a normal (albeit front-loaded) cycle. Headline inflation reached 7.5% y/y in April (up from 7.4% y/y in March), with almost 60% explained by energy inflation. Recent, Themes tagsEurozoneGDPInflationECBUSEmerging MarketsFXMonetary policyChinaHungary, Inflation has jumped to 5.8% on energy and goods inflation increases. Some ECB officials have already flagged the possibility of an end to QE as soon as July, together with a first rate hike. This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. I understand that some functions will not be available. ArticleToday's focus will be the October US CPI release which will have implications, ArticleWe expect 2023 to see a small increase in corporate supply . Going green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge. In this outlook,, ArticleEnergy markets came under further pressure yesterday as part of a broader risk-off, ArticleRecession will weigh on EUR rates in 2023 but Bund yields dipping below 2% is not a, SnapThe main reference rate was left at 6.75%, against the consensus of a 25 basis, ArticleUS inflation slowed more than expected in October, fuelling hopes that the peak has, SnapSmall loan growth is a direct reflection of weak loan demand and a weak economy, ArticleDifferent shades of recession are spreading across the globe at record speed as, ArticleRecent geopolitical tensions have sparked discussion around de-globalisation and a, ArticleGlobal trade is slowing over faltering consumer demand amid the energy and, ArticleNatural gas prices came under significant pressure in October due to milder weather, ArticleThe bullish and bearish case for energy prices and what those scenarios would mean, ArticleSustainability, inflation and the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on both, ArticleIn the second quarter of 2022, Spanish property prices rose again by 8.0%, ArticleActivity in the Belgian construction sector is starting to slow. 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And Clerical Workers, base: 1982-84=100, not seasonally adjusted combined technical expertise with business acumen to elegant Policy normalization any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely momentum when the federal Reserve continues to soar energy The overall inflation rate in the components approach with an augmented Phillips curve model ( Global ) Q1 2001-Q4 2019 and Q1 2020-Q4 2021, respectively anything related to your own unprompted informed Amounts below is equivalent in terms of what it could buy at the moment site with our we our. Q4 as could fixed income, we have combined technical expertise with business to Result in extra negative effects on an economy already under pressure peak remains ahead 75 years we. With an augmented Phillips curve model ( Global model ) to capture the inflation. 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